Signalizing a Turn One would have to be a disciple of Rip Van Winkle not to notice the turn we have taken in the markets of late. It started with the Fed tightening and has continued a path that has led us to even higher rates and yields. The trajectory is now firmly...

We already have the answer. The Treasury buyback program is assessed as modest and relatively small given the $40 trillion size of the debt. The idea has been to primarily influence rates downward especially on the long end. But there are many other pressing factors...

Turning Japanese You probably have heard the song. The important tag line is: “I really think so.” The song was referring to more of a cultural touchstone. I bend the meaning here to refer to national debt levels. The Debt to GDP ratio for Japan is hovering around...

Zeitgeist Check When one steps back and contemplates the health of the financial markets, we are truly in an extraordinary generational period. Equity markets attain new highs on almost a daily basis. Employment remains relatively strong and unemployment is low. There...

Discovering the New World Order On so many fronts these days we are working towards a new world order. The challenges have never been greater. When the Dutch arrived in New Amsterdam or what would ultimately be called Manhattan, the business proposition was about...

War is not Science We have seen in recent days that war is not anywhere close to having a scientific basis for course determination. We are just not drawing any closer to any reasonable basis for closure in the case of the Iran war. The will to do so is present. But...

It Comes Out in the Warsh No market participants were surprised last Wednesday when the Fed took no action. The press session afterwards was viewed as more hawkish. What was a bit surprising to me is the new Fed Chair’s commitment to the goal of 2% inflation. I...

Power is the fuel of our political economy. After months of debate the last portion of the federal budget has been passed. It remains unclear what was gained. Special claims funds were not eliminated, and the ballroom was not included. Now we will have a fresh start...

Mind the Gap This is a warning that a conductor on a train tells passengers who are departing to watch for the gap between the train and the platform. In the case of municipal finance, the gap refers to when revenues do not match the expenditure requirements in a...