I had to take a break at the end of last year due to hand surgery and a bout of omicron consecutively. The hand surgery was a bit easier to recover from. Thank goodness for my two vaccinations and the booster. I have no doubt that I would have more of a struggle without the prophylaxis.
Back in the Fall at the Smith’s Research & Gradings conference in Greenwich, CT, I suggested to the audience that we would be at 1.75% by year end 2021. The level was attained this week. So far, there has not been much of an effect on municipal rates. Supply is light as it often is in January and the flows remain positive. Once the infrastructure dollars start to flow, I believe we will have more of a ramp up in issuance beyond the seasonal flows.
The long end of the curve has not responded quite as much as the ten year and blow. The resulting flatter yield curve is a factor to keep monitoring. Issuers should be more aware that the long end will not stay benign of yields really start accelerating on the upward trajectory. Equity markets have been more sensitive to the rate changes particularly in the tech sector. However, no one is calling for a great rotation back to fixed income currently.
Although the employment number came in below expectation, the unemployment rate is quite low at 3.9%. Preliminary retail sales numbers for the holiday period have been favorable but do not appear to be breaking any records. The perception is that Omicron had somewhat of a dampening effect on sales performance.
We know turn our attention to state and local budgeting at this time of year. One would expect that there will need to be some deliberate attention to the transition away from an elevated level of federal aid. This trend could be attenuated if the social infrastructure package is passed in its entirety. The thrust of the debate is aimed at a more modest package that may be split into a number of bills to make the items more palatable to key legislators. However, no one really knows what may pass now. With the economy performing well, some of the urgency has abated even though some of the priority areas are addressing longstanding needs.
The new mayor in New York City should get high marks for enthusiasm. He has appropriately focused on policing and education matters. We stand to learn more from the first budget that will be presented. The managerial style and the budgetary priorities will be easier to assess at that point. Relations with the governor also appear to be starting out on a positive tone. It is too early to tell what the approach to debt will be. Fortunately, real estate in the city is rallying once again. Wall Street profitability should be relatively high, and the bonuses will certainly be put to work. Main street unemployment remains too high. Some of the latter will be addressed by the reopening and establishment of new small businesses among other hiring. We will see if there are any policy innovations to be anticipated in this area.
The Fed has put us on notice that the quantitative easing unwind, and the lower rate stance will be changed on a more accelerated timetable. I know that it will not necessarily be cause and effect, but some issuers may tap the market faster due to the change in tone. Of course, issuers still need to have projects that are ready to go or that may be fast tracked.
I look forward to a busy and productive year in the municipal market. The call for $500 billion or so of volume is not as much of a stretch as it would have been a few years ago.
John Hallacy
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