Lame Duck Action
While our legislators have been dilly dallying near the banks of the Potomac, many are at home wondering if they will be receiving the proverbial lump of coal this holiday season. Given the price of coal lately, this prospect is also unsatisfactory.
The $160 billion for State & Local stimulus as part of the $908 billion proposed stimulus package is even less that the $250 billion that I thought might pass muster earlier this year. Given the resurgence of the pandemic, I am not certain that $160 billion split 50 plus ways would still be enough to cover added Covid-19 expenses and revenue shortfalls. It is heartening to behold that the economy has improved, but the improvement now appears to be abating if not stalling outright.
One positive ray of hope is that internet sales are soaring. This trend bodes well for state and local sales taxes that are now collected on a regular basis in most jurisdictions. The challenge is whether all the intended packages will reach their destinations. Returns could eat into tax receipts this year.
In the meantime, interest rates continue to be compliant. Issuance keeps forging ahead. After a record November, many were predicting a fall off in issuance in December. It is shaping up that we may have a steady stream of issuance after the first two weeks of the month going into year end. With the ten year around 0.72% and the 30 year at 1.50% why hold off to experience the potential uncertainty of early next year.
The other aspect that may cause some uncertainty is budget introduction time that is usually the most active in January and early February. Some estimates for the current year had been so conservative that the actual is performance has been much better than estimate. I would not expect this circumstance to last exceptionally long since the revenue estimators base their reputations on accurate estimates going into the new budget year in July.
The prospect of more shutdowns is perplexing. The restrictions in Los Angeles County, home to ten million, has the potential to put a crimp in economic activity. If shutdowns happen in too many jurisdictions, the aggregate effect may cause a further slowdown in economic growth.
It was encouraging to see the airlines have a bit of positive activity over the Thanksgiving break. Together with the reauthorization of the 737 MAX, Airline stocks responded favorably relatively quickly. Unfortunately, the uptick may not prevent furloughs or layoffs at Southwest and across the industry. Airports appear to be holding their own, but their cash hordes will be drawn down at some point.
Investor appetite for new issues continues to be strong. Some of the large transactions including recent New Jersey deals have had so much demand that repricings have become a common feature.
This week there will be sales from sectors where we have not seen quite as much activity of late. I do not expect that the reception would be much different from recent experience.
About the potential pace of downgrades, I would expect more potential here after the mid-year mark. Not all entities have been performing better than estimate.
I am also wondering about the potential for tax appeals for commercial and office properties. New York City was at the early stages of considering some property tax reform. That action will not happen now. But tax appeals and a growing amount of vacant space are real concerns in the next year. Will travel and hotel stays make a gradual comeback? Will sporting venues be able to open more?
So much future economic activity is based on the wide availability of vaccines. Approval is pending in the near term. We trust approval will make a real difference. Health care workers and the senior population and those with special needs will be first in line.
The rest of the population will have to wait quite some time for availability. Mid-year next year or beyond is probable.
Given the strain on the healthcare system, is it possible that we could witness some kind of healthcare rationing? A more elaborate system of triage that has developed may not suffice.
Some challenges may be ameliorated by tapping a very receptive municipal market. Not waiting to achieve vital projects makes a lot of sense in this environment and puts people to work.
I hope that President-Elect Biden will help to get us over the hurdle of approval for an infrastructure bill.
One has hope for the future.
John Hallacy
John Hallacy Consulting LLC
12/06/20
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