Reality Check
I do not believe that any financial professionals were even close to predicting the employment gain of 528,000 today. Also, the unemployment rate edged down to a very low 3.5%. There remains a very high level of job openings. Is this an economy that is slowing?
Clearly, the markets are not enthused with the data. The zeitgeist has become that the Fed will have to continue to be aggressive in hiking rates to arrest the prevalent inflationary forces.
The 10-year Treasury yield increased from 2.69% a day or so ago to 2.84%. The gains that were to be had from somewhat lower rates in recent days have now evaporated.
The September Fed meeting is quite a long time from now and there will be more data releases. But the stage is set for much higher rates. The probability of a 75-basis point move had the next meeting has just increased substantially. The happy talk about an easing of rates next year may have to wait a bit longer.
Equities continue to be volatile with bulls and bears trading places on subsequent days. However, it does continue to appear to be a stock pickers market. Some companies have reported excellent earnings in this round of reporting.
Given the volatility, municipals continue to be differentiated by the presence of stability. Many strategists are now touting the positive characteristics of municipals in this market vis a vis other market securities. The losses in municipals have been trimmed back for the YTD but they are still losses.
Flows to the mutual funds have become positive once again. It is interesting that this development is occurring at a time when supply is starting to falter. Most of the strategists have decreased their volume forecasts for the year as discussed at a recent Smith’s Research & Gradings conference. The outlier high forecast was at $500 billion but the consensus was more in the $430 billion range. All the panelists conceded that the forecasts had to be cut.
Spreads continue to be tight in the municipal market. We have not had any major credit event for some time. Any changes recorded in revenue streams will more likely be revealed in the Fall, but the revenue collections appear to be holding up.
Reviewing some of the trends from the first half of the year yields some insights. There is more interest in bringing variable rate transactions to market. Colleges and Universities and Housing transactions are more active. The former sector has been a fan of variable rate. It is one of the few sectors where swap still get done. The housing sector has benefitted from more demand for single family transactions given the increase in mortgage rates generally.
The Public Facilities sector has declined along with the 11% decrease in volume in the overall market. However, there has been an uptick in activity for police stations and for counties and parishes. It appears that progress on capital facilities is advancing at the local level.
Avoid the heat in the outdoor temperatures and not in the market. We are keeping a watchful eye on all the natural hazards out there and what their implications may be.
John Hallacy
John Hallacy Consulting LLC
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